I try to add an edge to my MLB betting sheet each day by picking a few props using our Action Labs previews.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool rates each prop on a scale of 1 to 10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my MLB player picks for the Monday, August 14th slate, including picks for Quinn Priester in the Pirates vs. Mets and Grayson Rodriguez in Orioles vs. Padres.
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MLB Player Props For Monday August 14th
|Pirates vs. Mets||Mets -135|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
I still think Quinn Priester will be a good pitcher, and as a result, there is some value for him and the Pirates as shortstop dogs against the Mets and Carlos Carrasco.
However, I still think we can fade Priester in the strikeout market.
Priester isn’t a heavy hitter – he’s a hitter who only struck out 24% of batters in the major leagues. He really lost velocity on his fastball as he progressed in the Pirates organization.
Other than the lone start against Philadelphia (seven Ks), Priester forced just seven Whiffs against Cleveland, five against San Diego and eight against Milwaukee. Priester has some devastating pitches, but he often comes up to contact.
And the Mets love to make contact. It’s the one thing the Mets do well. The Mets combine for the seventh-highest strikeout rate with the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB.
Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Priester for 3.2 Ks on Monday afternoon. As a result, I think Under 3.5 is worth a bet at any number of co-moneys.
Choose: Under 3.5 Ks (+115) on DraftKings
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
|Orioles vs. Padres||Parents -145|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
While Grayson Rodriguez has looked much better since returning from Triple-A, I think he’s overrated in the strikeout market.
His fastball looks 100 times better (it sits above 98 mph) and uses more sliders than changeups, resulting in more whiffs.
But, get this, G-Rod hasn’t struck out more than six batters in a single start since April. He’s striking out just 7.5 batters per nine innings in the five starts since being recalled, which is nothing short of spectacular.
Rodriguez will battle the Padres in this start, which is not the best matchup.
The Padres are hitting much better in the second half, even if they haven’t shown up in the standings, and part of that is better discipline. Over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Padres have the seventh-lowest percentage in MLB (20.3%).
Digging deeper, against right-handed four-seam fastballs, sliders and changeups (85% of Grayson’s arsenal), the Padres combine for the fourth-highest xwOBA (.334) with the sixth-lowest Whiff Rate (25.3%).
Rodriguez gets it, but we can’t pencil him in for solid games with six strikeouts left.
The forecasts agree. Every model I trust has G-Rod about five strikes away on Monday, including:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.2 Ks
- BallParkPal’s Pitcher Simulations: 5.1 Ks
- RotoWire Player Prop Projections: 5.2 Ks
- @JonPGH Daily Views: 5.2 Ks
It will be difficult for Rodriguez to exceed expectations with today’s tough matchup and I see some value in the Under 5.5 Ks (-115) available at BetMGM.
Choose: Under 5.5 Ks (-115) at BetMGM
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Pick: Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Ks
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